I’ve only played Fantasy Football seriously for 4 years in two leagues, but in both I’ve been “lucky” to play in the championship game several times, having won 4 of them. Now “lucky” is in quotes because it’s true, it’s about the players, their match-ups, injuries, etc. Things that are out of my control. But there are ways to make your fantasy team lucky by following some useful tips from draft day through to week 17.
Rule #1 – No Magazines!
First, never EVER buy those magazines you see in Barnes and Noble or your local grocery store.
In this Internet age, those rankings and reports are old by the time you get home to read it. Use the Internet to always get up to date rankings and injury reports. An example of out of date info in 2008 was Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart on the Cardinals. Both were battling for the starting QB role and almost all mags listed Leinart as the starter going into the season. By the end of training camp Warner was the starter and the 2008 season made him a fantasy MVP.
A second reason I find magazines useless, compared to the Internet, is that they tell everyone the same thing. It’s similar to the financial magazines which tout stocks but you then realize, everyone is reading the same info. If everyone scripted their draft according to mags, then how boring would your draft be?
Stick to the always refreshed Internet and hit the print button. Don’t rely on the mags.
Rule #2 – You Don’t Win The Championship on Draft Day, But You Can Lose Your Chance
Why is everyone so wowed of the number one pick in a fantasy football draft. I’ve never had it and honestly if I did, I would DREAD it. In my opinion the number one pick is the kiss of death. This past year, LT was the number one pick, I doubt many were thrilled with his performance. (One thing I would love to see is an analysis from CBS Sportsline or ESPN on how many people, in 2008, had the first overall pick won their league championship.)
In a commonly used “snake draft” the number one pick wouldn’t get their 2nd player until everyone else has two. I prefer being in the middle of the pack and then working throughout the season to shore up weaknesses. But most teams don’t know the draft pick ahead of time. If you don’t, here’s a tip. Have three first round guys ready for different spots you might pick. Build a team off you having the first or second pick, then have a player ready for the middle and finally if you’re at the end of the first round, have two studs ready for your back to back pick.
Another tip is to never get too attached (or detached) from your local team(s). An example was this past year when the Washington Redskins signed Jim Zorn as their head coach. Being local to DC and all things Redskins, our draft had Clinton Portis drop to the 4th round. This was primarily because of local news and “inside” knowledge of the Redskins situation. I drafted Portis, rode him for most of the season and then come championship time he was gone. (Thank you Cedric Benson for a great week 17!) The opposite is to draft your heart. Just because you like the Giants doesn’t mean your first round pick is Eli Manning! (Though it is ok to use your last pick on throw away players, like ones who played football at your college.)
Finally, never follow a script. The draft rankings from website, and out of date magazines, are guides, but not guides in stone. It’s your team, pick guys who you would want to watch play in person, otherwise it’s no fun come Sunday.
Rule #3 – Draft Teams, Not Individuals
Certain players get a lot of hype in the preseason and it’s because people say “they can put up big numbers if.” The word if is important because in football the player isn’t alone as in other sports like baseball or basketball. In baseball, A-Rod is great, but it’s him versus the pitcher. If he hits a homerun, it’s a hit, HR, RBI, run scored. He gets all the points. In basketball, Kobe is great, but it’s his jump shot. Sure his team gets the rebound and sets up an outlet pass to him for a breakaway dunk, but it’s still Kobe and his shot.
In football, the RB isn’t alone at anytime. He needs a coach to call his number. He needs an offensive line to open a hole. He needs a deep threat to not have the defense stick 8 defenders in the box. You may be drafting a single RB from a team, but he puts up big number if, and only if, his team is a team.
Adrian Peterson’s rookie year wasn’t a fluke. The Vikings had an amazing offensive line in place to protect and push opposing defensive lines. Compare that to Darren McFadden who is just as physically gifted as AP andwas drafted by the Oakland Raiders. Some articles said McFadden could have a rookie year similar to Petersons. [another article] Had the author flushed out more comparisons between the teams, and not just the players, they would have seen the Vikings had a good O-line and Raiders didn’t. No one is that physically talented to make their own running lanes.
When you think about drafting players think about the team they play on. If it’s a choice between a Derek Anderson and Donovan McNabb, pick the QB on a team that has done something. A QB that has done it year after year. Not just a one year stud.
The rule is think about the the teams the individuals play on, then draft.
One rule-breaker for drafting a team, no individuals is soon-to-be free agents. If you follow sports, you’ve heard of the term “contract year.” It’s the final year of a players contract and they usually play harder and faster to secure a big payday. This past year I used this rule-breaker to make up my mind to try and draft two players – Kurt Warner and Antonio Bryant. (Though, I got beat to the punch with Bryant this year)
Numerous sites, such as KFFL, list free agents and it is worth looking at to think about possible studs for an upcoming season. For 2009, these QBs are entering their contract years – Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Jake Delhomme and Ben Roethlisberger. For RBs, the list includes MJD, Willie Parker, Pierre Thomas and LenDale White. Take some time and think about the “contract year” player. More times than not, you can find a diamond in the rough.
Rule #4 – Don’t Chase The Dragon on Draft Day – esp. for DSTs.
If you’ve ever been to a few drafts or participated online, this is what happens often around rounds 4,5 and 6. Joe Blow will come along and draft the Ravens D. That’s ok because the Ravens are point getters. But it is what happens after that for the next few rounds, everyone switches to drafting Ds. Primarily because you are scared of being locked out. Bucs, Steelers maybe in the part of the draft. But don’t start going down your printed out rankings and taking Ds just because others are. This is a fatal error. DSTs (Defense and Special Teams) are equally about matchups as they are with teams.
Each year only three to four DSTs merit early draft status. Once those “top-dogs” are gone, wait it out for a few rounds to get the second tier DSTs.
Rule #5 – Make Sure You Handcuff & Punish Those Who Don’t Handcuff
The term handcuff is important because if you draft LT, you need his backup. If not, someone else will. That’s the nature of fantasy football.
Two years ago, in 2007, I drafted AP, in his awesome rookie year, in the second round of a draft. My team had Peyton, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Jason Witten and The Bears. Obviously I was helped out by the emergence of both Moss and Witten and I ended the season 14-2. But it is what I did in week 2 that I know helped me win it all that year. I knew of AP’s injury problems in college and I knew I needed Chester Taylor. I wound up trading Reggie Wayne for Taylor straight up. At the time, and even now as I write, the trade seemed unbalanced. Several weeks later, AP was out a game here and there and Taylor wound up starting. I was able to roll with the Vikings ground game that entire year. Sometimes I played both at the same time. This is how you win after draft day and handcuff your early picks. If you draft a RB in rounds one or two, you MUST get their backup. Again, if you don’t, someone else will.
How do you punish those who don’t handcuff? Well, first you don’t punish them directly, but you earn from their mistake. This past year two players, both handcuffs, won me some key games and earned me some BIG points. Those two players in 2008 were Corell Buckhalter (Eagles) and Dominic Rhodes (Colts). Needless to say they were on my team and then dumped when their starters returned.
Rule #6 – When Stuck On ‘Who To Start,’ Look To Vegas
The point spread and football go hand in hand. If you are trying to see what defense to start, pick the one with the lowest point total. Looking for a QB or RB, who does Vegas say will score a lot of points?
I’m surprised that more fantasy advice isn’t correlated with the NFL Point Spread. If you’re not a gambler, then I’ll break it down for you. Every week there are point spreads for upcoming NFL games. The spread has two parts – margin of victory (spread) and the total score (over, under).
What you are looking for is a low over under. If the spread is low, then starting those DST can be a tip. Again, combine this piece of info with matchups and weather, but it’s a good starting point. Likewise if stuck between two quarterbacks, look at their offenses in the point spread. Does Vegas predict a high scoring game? If so, then go with the higher scoring team.
Using both of these nuggets of info, you can find diamonds in the rough for the upcoming fantasy week. (Diamonds in the rough are important, because week to week is a whole new game. The next rule is about winning with players you don’t draft.)
Rule #7 – You Will Win With Players You Didn’t Draft
It’s another thing that just happens in fantasy football – you will win with players you don’t draft. I draft Marion Barber in the first round of 2008, but at the end of the season he is on the bench. How do you win? Well, this past year I was “lucky” to have Pierre Thomas and DeAngelo Williams break out at the end of the season.
Williams was a mid-round pick and for most of the season I wanted to dump him. Thankfully he tore it up when it counted. Thomas was different, I monitored the Saints situation using Google News and just used my bench space to keep him around. I never figured both Williams and Thomas would erupt.
Notice how I didn’t say I was “lucky” to have both those players. I was “lucky” they produced. Sometimes you use bench space to bolster your team and it works and sometimes you use your bench space and it doesn’t. In addition to Warner, I had McNabb. I traded McNabb halfway through the season for Tim Hightower, hoping he would be a good #2 RB. Hightower never ran for another 100 yard game and sat on my bench until I dumped him. Sometimes the move to get ready for the second half of the season works (Thomas, Rhodes, etc) and sometimes it fails (Hightower, Winslow)
Another example is Kurt Warner. Warned had a monster 2008 season, but in week 16, in the snow of New England he had a nothing game. Rumor prior to kickoff was he might be benched because Arizona had already clinched. What to do? I picked up Jeff Garcia and in my championship game he delivered a decent game. At the end of the season, I won my title with Garcia, Thomas and Zack Miller. Not with Warner, Barber and Winslow.
You will win regular season games, and championships, with players you didn’t draft!
Rule #8 – You Get What You Put In
If you are one of the players who just opens the laptop on Sunday and clicks ‘Top Lineup’ then you may win half your games, but you won’t win a title.
The playoffs (playoffs?) come from monitoring the injury report, seeing who is getting the targets and reading articles about your players.
This leads to the final tip, you get what you put in.
This is a life rule, but it applies to fantasy football just as much. If you start 0-2, you’re not out. I started 0-2 this past year, but wound up winning because over the next 10-12 weeks you make the moves to win because you continue to see trends, spot injuries, etc.
This goes back to rule #2, you don’t win on draft day just because you had the number one pick. You win with the moves you make throughout the season.
Have some fun, spend some time using the vast resources of the Internet. And most importantly, draft/pick up players you like to watch on Sunday, not just because someone says they’ll get a lot of points.
I didn’t list everything that I do that helps me in Fantasy Football, but these are some basic things you can start thinking about for the Fall of 2009.